In April, the domestic butyl acetate market continued the trend of the previous month and continued to decline, deepening the decline compared with the previous month. Butyl acetate continued to decline in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business agencies, butyl acetate fell by 4.59% this month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 9600-9900 yuan/ton.
First of all, in terms of cost, both acetic acid and n-butanol have come out of the decline, especially acetic acid has declined significantly. According to the monitoring of business agencies, acetic acid fell by 18.39% per month. Supply has been loose this month. The Shanghai Huayi acetic acid plant has resumed full capacity operation. The main manufacturer in Shandong has resumed normal operation of the acetic acid plant. On-site supply has increased. Affected by public health incidents, logistics and transportation have been blocked, freight costs have increased and some areas have not been transported. Downstream demand has weakened, and the market supply has accumulated. Coupled with the mentality of buying up and not buying down in the market, the acetic acid market continues to operate weakly. The cost decline is the direct reason for the weak price of butyl acetate.
From the perspective of upstream n-butanol, n-butanol fell by 4% this month. Especially in the early April stage, after the end of the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was average, and some n-butanol factory inventories accumulated. Under the pressure of supply, the factory lowered the ex-factory price of n-butanol for three consecutive days on June, July, and August, with a cumulative decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, due to the limited factors of logistics and transportation, the overall supply and demand circulation in the n-butanol field is still slow, and downstream users are cautious about the spot purchase of raw materials.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers has been stable this month, and butyl acetate has shown the characteristics of both weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains sluggish, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is not good, and most industry players are bearish. Due to the pandemic, transportation is limited, and rising freight prices have suppressed part of the demand. The substitution of other raw materials has crowded out part of the demand for butyl ester. Weak demand is the fundamental reason for the low price of butyl ester. Excluding the weak supply and demand, it can be seen that the rise and fall of butyl acetate mainly comes from the downward guidance of costs.
At present, the cost side is relatively weak, especially acetic acid, but from the historical trend, butyl acetate is more correlated with n-butanol, which also confirms that n-butanol and butyl acetate have not declined as much as acetic acid. From the supply and demand side, the supply pressure is not large. If the demand does not follow up in time, there is little hope that the market will rebound in the later stage. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of dual raw materials.
